AGP Executive Report

Formula 1 in Baku: Red Bull confirmed Isack Hadjar will stay as Max Verstappen’s teammate for 2027, after returning from a wrist injury for this weekend’s Azerbaijan GP; the race weekend is set for Sept. 24-26 with a Saturday main race. Tourism & logistics: Baku expects a record-level surge in foreign visitors for F1, with last year’s 14,000 arrivals cited as a benchmark, and the city circuit highlighting the weekend’s entertainment zones. Diplomacy & sanctions: President Ilham Aliyev pardoned French citizen Martin Ryan and 19 others, linking the move to EU sanctions changes involving Russian oligarchs Usmanov and Fridman. Regional connectivity: Azerbaijan’s role in the TRIPP transport plan remains in focus as Armenia discusses the project in its parliament, while Uzbekistan weighs joining a rail link from Nakhichevan to Turkey. Economy: The Asian Development Bank raised Azerbaijan’s inflation outlook for 2026-2027, while Azerbaijan and the Czech Republic discussed expanding cooperation across energy, transport, pharma and tech. Human rights: Human Rights Watch urged Azerbaijan to ensure regular access for the Red Cross to Armenian detainees, amid ongoing complaints about prison conditions.

UN Diplomacy in New York: Azerbaijan’s FM Jeyhun Bayramov attended the opening of UNGA81’s general debate and used the platform to call for peaceful solutions, including reaffirming Azerbaijan’s commitment to resolving the India-Pakistan dispute through international law. Regional Outreach: Bayramov also met Djibouti’s top diplomat to discuss expanding ties in trade, education and humanitarian cooperation, and held talks with Switzerland’s Ignazio Cassis on strengthening bilateral dialogue. Visa Move: Azerbaijan and Bangladesh signed an agreement exempting visa requirements for holders of diplomatic, official and service passports. Aviation Impact: Flights by Iranian airlines to Azerbaijan were suspended from Sept. 22 due to new US sanctions on Iran’s aviation sector, with passengers told to contact ticket sellers. Armenia-Tskhinvali Stance: Azerbaijan’s Foreign Ministry reiterated it does not recognize so-called “presidential elections” in Tskhinvali. F1 in Baku: Red Bull confirmed Isack Hadjar is fit to return for the Azerbaijan Grand Prix, with Liam Lawson stepping back to Racing Bulls.

Cultural Heritage & Religious Freedom: Albanian-Udi Christian community leaders say Ganjasar Monastery visits are “symbolic” after Azerbaijan’s liberation, calling the region’s churches “unequivocally Albanian temples” and urging preservation of Caucasian Albania heritage. Diplomacy: Türkiye’s Vice President Cevdet Yilmaz discussed the South Caucasus peace process and Türkiye–Armenia normalization with Azerbaijan’s new ambassador to Ankara, Rashad Aslanov. Natural Events: A magnitude 4.1 earthquake was recorded in the Caspian Sea; no casualties reported. Sports & Tourism: Azerbaijan introduced visa-on-arrival/simplified procedures for FIFA U-15 World Cup visitors, while AZAL expands Central Asia routes to 10 cities. Transport & Trade: Azerbaijan Railways and the Port of Hamburg agreed to deepen the Baku–Hamburg logistics corridor. Environment: UN plans a “Blueing the Caspian Sea” project to tackle pollution and protect biodiversity. EU Sanctions Watch: EU talks on renewing Russia-linked sanctions stalled, with possible delisting of Alisher Usmanov and Mikhail Fridman still in dispute.

NATO Readiness: Azerbaijan’s Defence Minister Zakir Hasanov inspected a Military Police forward operating base aligned with NATO standards and preparations for an October 2026 interoperability evaluation. Court Case: Trial preparations begin in Baku for former Presidential Administration head Ramiz Mehdiyev, with charges tied to alleged high treason and seizure of power; he remains under house arrest. Security & Justice: Azerbaijan’s State Security Service says it is investigating a terrorism-financing and assassination-preparation case spanning five countries, with multiple suspects detained. Drugs at Astara: Customs at the Astara border seized 79.74 kg of marijuana hidden in 230 packages in a truck carrying produce from Iran to Russia. Economy Watch: The Central Bank will announce its next interest-rate corridor decision on Sept. 23; refinancing remains at 6.5% with corridor bounds at 5.5%–7.5%. Culture & Identity: A senior analyst, Farid Shafiyev, renewed criticism of efforts to “Armenianise” Caucasian Albania history, urging deeper substantiated research. Sports: Azerbaijan’s chess teams start sixth-round battles at the World Chess Olympiad in Samarkand.

State Sovereignty Day Diplomacy: Azerbaijan marked Sept. 20 with messages of support from Türkiye, Ukraine, Pakistan and Israel, while the Foreign Ministry reiterated that sovereignty is eternal and indivisible. Great Return Update: Housing complexes for the return of 8,000 people to Aghdam are set to be commissioned this year, with additional reconstruction in Fuzuli and Khojavend. Artsakh/Regional Narrative: A new documentary, “Towards Tomorrow,” highlights restoration and reconstruction in Garabagh and East Zangazur, as Azerbaijan Journalists’ Network presents a teaser. Legal/International Pressure: A human rights advocate says Azerbaijan’s submissions to the ECHR on Armenian prisoners lacked required photographs and complete judgments. Security & Terrorism Solidarity: Azerbaijan condemned the deadly Kohat attack in Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and pledged solidarity against terrorism. Culture & Sports: Azerbaijani acrobatic gymnasts won two medals at the World Championships; the Grape and Wine Festival wrapped up in Shamakhi.

State Sovereignty Day: Azerbaijan marked September 20 with official statements and social media posts highlighting the 2023 anti-terror measures in Karabakh that restored full sovereignty in less than 24 hours, with the Foreign Ministry saying the move created a new political reality and opened opportunities for lasting peace. City Day in liberated areas: Khankendi, Khojaly, Khojavend and Aghdara also observed City Day, tied to the same 2023 restoration, with Defense Ministry figures citing 406 sq km cleared and large-scale seizure of weapons and equipment. Diplomacy in focus: Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov departed for New York to attend the UN General Assembly’s 81st session and hold bilateral meetings. Energy legacy: Economy and energy officials marked September 20 as Oil Workers’ Day, recalling the “Contract of the Century” and linking it to new energy and green corridor plans. Regional note: Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry also congratulated Azerbaijan on State Sovereignty Day.

State Sovereignty Day: Azerbaijan marked September 20 with posts and video on President Ilham Aliyev’s and Mehriban Aliyeva’s official social media accounts, tying the date to the 2023 Karabakh anti-terror operation and the restoration of full sovereignty. UN diplomacy: Turkey’s Erdoğan is set to address the UN General Assembly next week, renewing his long-running message for reform of the international system. Karabakh rights row: Azerbaijan’s Ombudsman rejected claims about treatment of Armenian-descent convicts, saying rights and conditions were monitored under international standards. Turkic culture: Baku hosted the first Congress of the Turkic World Composers, establishing the Turkic Union of Composers and signing the Baku Declaration. Climate cooperation: Azerbaijan’s climate representative Mukhtar Babayev met Germany’s new ambassador to discuss stronger climate and environmental partnership. Local culture & tourism: Shamakhi’s 5th Grape and Wine Festival opened in Meysari village, running two days with music, parades and tastings. Sports spotlight: Azerbaijan is also in the global youth football spotlight as FIFA’s Under-15 Boys Festival is set to be held in Baku in late October.

Security & Regional Cooperation: Secretaries of the Security Councils of the Organization of Turkic States met in Baku (Sept 16-18), focusing on regional threats and global challenges, including the Middle East’s impact and AI for national security, with Azerbaijan’s Ramil Usubov thanking the TSO leadership. Karabakh Anniversary Narrative: Azerbaijan’s Interior Ministry highlighted police and Internal Troops’ role in the 2020 war and the Sept 2023 anti-terror operation, marking three years since the start of local measures. Human Rights Dispute: An Armenian lawyer says Baku’s submissions to the ECHR on Armenian prisoners were incomplete, lacking photos of detainees’ real condition. Economy & Trade: Azerbaijan’s shoe output rose 44.3% (Jan-Aug), urea exports resumed to France after 16 years, and Azeri Light oil climbed to $122.37/bbl. Finance Policy: ING expects Azerbaijan’s Central Bank to keep its key rate at 6.5%. Aviation & Connectivity: Azerbaijan Airlines was named Best Regional Airline in Central Asia & the CIS at the 2026 World Airline Awards. Culture & Heritage: The Alban-Udi Christian community renewed calls to restore the Albanian Apostolic Church, while ANAS criticized Armenia’s Gandzasar campaign as sensationalism.

Aviation & Economy: Azerbaijan Airlines (AZAL) was named Best Regional Airline in Central Asia and the CIS at the World Airline Awards 2026 in London, citing fleet upgrades, route growth and service improvements. Trade: Azerbaijan resumed urea exports to France after 16 years, shipping 19,062 tonnes worth $5.7m in Jan–Jul 2026, while exports overall totaled 213,109 tonnes worth $88.2m. Armenia-Azerbaijan Diplomacy: Armenian PM Nikol Pashinyan thanked President Ilham Aliyev for contributions to peace after receiving the Hessian Peace Prize, pointing to the Aug 8, 2025 Washington declaration and border delimitation steps. Foreign Policy: Baku rejected France’s travel warning over alleged “arbitrary detention” and “unfair trial,” calling the claims biased and an unacceptable interference in Azerbaijan’s judicial system. Security & Regional Cooperation: “Power of Unity – 2026” joint drills will be held in Azerbaijan with troops from Azerbaijan, Türkiye and Uzbekistan across Karabakh, Nakhchivan and the Caspian Sea. Culture & Heritage: Azerbaijan’s ANAS criticized Armenia’s Gandzasar Monastery controversy, saying it is a historical monument of Caucasian Albania with no link to Armenian history. Humanitarian Demining: Azerbaijan and the UK discussed new humanitarian demining cooperation to support safe settlement and resettlement.

Counter-Terrorism: Azerbaijan’s State Security Service says it detained 10 people in a multinational operation over alleged terrorism financing and plans to attack public and religious figures, including a suspect previously convicted in the “Sumgayit Jamaat.” Rail Modernization: Azerbaijan Railways delivered seven new China-made freight locomotives to Baku, with more on the way, to boost cargo capacity on the Middle Corridor and TRIPP. Diplomacy: Germany’s new ambassador met Hikmet Hajiyev to discuss expanding cooperation across the economy, education, peace and security. Consumer Protection: Azerbaijan was elected to the ICPEN advisory group for 2026-2027, aiming to deepen international consumer enforcement ties. Legal-Tech & Rights: Baku will host the EYBA Autumn Conference (Oct 8-11) on AI, data protection and digital rights. Culture: Azerbaijan marks National Music Day on Sept. 18, honoring Uzeyir Hajibayli. Sports & F1: Baku announced Formula 1 road closures and traffic rules for the Azerbaijan Grand Prix.

Clean Energy Diplomacy: Azerbaijan’s Energy Ministry says talks with the UK focused on clean energy, decarbonisation and electricity interconnections, including the Caspian-Black Sea-Europe Green Energy Corridor and ways for British firms to join next steps. Energy Roadmap with Uzbekistan: Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan signed a 2026–2028 energy cooperation roadmap covering the Central Asia–Azerbaijan Green Energy Corridor, oil and gas exploration, processing projects and SOCAR’s expansion in Uzbekistan. SOCAR in Uzbekistan: SOCAR discussed possible new SOCAR-branded filling stations in Uzbekistan and cooperation tied to Ustyurt investment blocks. Trade & Transport: Baku International Sea Trade Port handled 5.5m tons of cargo in Jan–Aug (+3%) and 85,000 TEUs of containers (+22%). Regional Connectivity: Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov met TRACECA’s secretary-general to push Middle Corridor capacity, higher freight volumes and digitised transit procedures. Consular Links: Azerbaijan and Estonia held a second round of consular consultations in Baku, including digitalisation of consular services and cooperation on migration and justice. Azerbaijan-Serbia Ties: Serbia and Azerbaijan reaffirmed their strategic partnership, welcoming the new Belgrade–Baku direct Air Serbia flight. Economy Snapshot: Azerbaijan produced 17.69m tonnes of crude oil (Jan–Aug, -3.8%) and 33.41bn cubic metres of gas (-0.5%). Local & Community: A sister-city protocol was signed between Romania’s Baia Mare and Khankendi (Khankandi/Aghdara-Khojaly representative Elchin Yusubov). Religious Meetings Crackdown: Reports say Baku courts fined people for unapproved religious gatherings, with dozens of such cases recorded in 2026.

Security Diplomacy: President Ilham Aliyev urged deeper security cooperation among Organization of Turkic States (OTS) members as the 5th meeting of OTS security council secretaries opened in Baku, stressing the Garabagh Victory’s role in a “new geopolitical reality” and the Zangezur Corridor’s economic and logistical promise. Heritage Protection: Culture officials say Azerbaijan is building a systematic approach to preserving religious, historical and architectural monuments, with restoration work continuing at scale in Karabakh and Eastern Zangazur; a proposal also calls for a unified digital map and information database of religious sites. Christian Heritage in Peace Talks: Presidential aide Hikmet Hajiyev told a Euronews Forum that Azerbaijan is committed to preserving Christian heritage as part of its history, arguing peace with Armenia is “an uphill struggle” but not revenge. Energy & Infrastructure: Azerbaijan designated a 198.45-hectare Baku land plot for a 100 MW solar plant plus 30 MW battery storage, while AZAL launched its first flight to Aktobe, its sixth Kazakhstan destination. Economy & Transport: Economy Minister Jabbarov said Azerbaijan aims to boost economic complexity by leveraging technology and AI; rail freight rose to 12.129 million tons in Jan–Aug. Public Health: The government extended Azerbaijan’s special COVID-19 quarantine regime until Jan 2, 2027.

State Budget Outlook: Azerbaijan’s 2027 consolidated budget is forecast with revenues of AZN 47.61bn and expenditures of AZN 50.39bn, leaving a deficit of AZN 2.78bn; the state budget alone is projected at AZN 39.23bn in revenues and AZN 42.40bn in spending, with an AZN 3.17bn deficit. Economic Forecast: Growth for 2027 is expected at about 2.7%, with non-oil growth rising while oil-and-gas output is forecast to contract. Trade Surge: Azerbaijan’s foreign trade surplus hit $10.39bn in Jan–Aug 2026, with exports up 27.8% to $21.82bn and imports down 24.1% to $11.42bn. Remittances: UAE-to-Azerbaijan remittances reached $23.2m in H1 2026 (+25.4%), while outbound remittances to the UAE fell to $8.4m. Energy & Industry: SOCAR completed a 10% stake purchase in Côte d’Ivoire’s Baleine project, marking an Africa upstream entry. Diplomacy & Security: Azerbaijan and IsDB discussed a 2027–2031 partnership strategy; Azerbaijan’s security chief joined Central Asian special services talks on regional threats. Culture & Community: Pan-African Parliament President Butbig visited Baku’s Alley of Honour and Victory Park. Food Exports: Fresh fruits and vegetables exports rose slightly in volume to 540,918.5 tons, with export value up 13.6% to $637.1m in Jan–Aug 2026.

Aghdam & OTS Religious Conference: Azerbaijan marked the ongoing Yahya Bakuvi scientific-practical event in Aghdam, with religious leaders calling Karabakh’s reconstruction a “peace and confidence” milestone and highlighting restored mosques and heritage sites. Turkic Trade & Middle Corridor: OTS analysts and officials in Baku pushed the idea that the Middle Corridor should be judged by the value it creates, while Türkiye’s AK Party deputy chair urged digital customs, single-window systems, and even a Turkic digital economic platform. Finance for Connectivity: Türkiye also floated a joint development bank for Turkic states, linking future funding to Middle Corridor projects and broader regional routes. Digital Audit Push: President Ilham Aliyev urged digitising audit work, expanding AI and modern analytics, and aligning methods with international standards. Azerbaijan–UAE Media Ties: Hikmet Hajiyev met UAE media officials to deepen strategic cooperation in media and communications. Economy Watch: Azerbaijan’s gold exports surged in Jan–Jul 2026, while hazelnut prices jumped 53% despite softer export volumes. Sports & Culture: UEFA appointed Moldovan referees for the Azerbaijan–Tajikistan friendly; Azerbaijan jazz was showcased at Montreux, and an Azerbaijani school opening in Istanbul was delayed to next year. Regional Politics: Turkey’s FM Hakan Fidan told Baku Greece’s island militarisation violates treaties, as Ankara presses its long-running demilitarisation stance. US Policy Impact: A US House procedural vote advanced a bill that could enable up to 100% tariffs on major buyers of Russian energy, with Azerbaijan listed among them.

Azerbaijan–Türkiye diplomacy and energy: Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov said Baku and Ankara are coordinating “projects for the coming decades,” with emphasis on energy security, including BTC and the Southern Gas Corridor, plus green power links via the Black Sea and a new cable connecting Nakhchivan to Türkiye. Regional peace push: Türkiye’s FM Hakan Fidan backed lasting peace between Baku and Yerevan, urging a diplomatic solution to the Iran crisis, calling for safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, and warning that rising attacks are undermining de-escalation. Trade and investment signals: Azerbaijan’s gas export revenue fell 4.8% to $5.71bn in Jan–Aug 2026, while Italy remained the top oil buyer (57.71% of exports). Separately, Azerbaijan’s direct investment in Italy jumped nearly 310-fold in H1 2026, and the economy ministry highlighted fresh cooperation opportunities with Switzerland after the 10th joint commission meeting. International engagement: OTS Secretary General Kubanychbek Omuraliev praised Baku as a hub for the Turkic world, as Azerbaijan hosted OTS-related religious and conference events. Armenia/Artsakh dispute: Azerbaijan accused Western media of a “dirty” discredit campaign and criticized EU officials’ wording and visits to occupied areas, while Armenian and diaspora groups protested diplomatic trips to occupied Artsakh.

Türkiye-Azerbaijan Diplomacy: Foreign ministers Jeyhun Bayramov and Hakan Fidan held one-on-one talks in Baku, with Fidan also set to meet Defence Minister Zakir Hasanov and be received by President Ilham Aliyev, as Ankara pushes deeper trade, defence and regional peace cooperation. Energy Deal: UAE’s XRG completed its acquisition of an equity stake in Azerbaijan’s Southern Gas Corridor CJSC, strengthening Caspian-to-Europe gas integration and expanding cooperation with SOCAR. Economy & Finance: Azerbaijan reported a $4.7bn current account surplus in H1 2026 (12.4% of GDP). Ratings Watch: Fitch affirmed SOCAR’s long-term rating at BBB- and expects about $2.35bn in annual capex through 2030. Oil Prices: Azeri Light rose to $127.29/bbl. Reconstruction & Returns: Under the Great Return programme, 50 families moved back to Khojavend and nearby settlements. Baku Liberation Anniversary: Azerbaijan marked the 108th anniversary of Baku’s liberation from occupation with official statements and ceremonies, including at the Turkish and Azerbaijani Martyrs’ Alleys. Armenia Tensions: The Western Azerbaijan Community condemned Armenia’s reaction to a diplomatic corps visit to Karabakh and East Zangazur, warning it could derail peace efforts.